ElectionsXAwaiting results

THE SOURCE RECORD / IPSOS 2026

The polling
ledger.

No quiet edits. No hindsight. We preserve what was known before election day, then test it against reviewed election results.

2026 MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS ELECTIONSXPOLLING INTENTIONS / NOT ELECTION RETURNS

THE PRE-ELECTION RECORD

What people said.

An attributed record of published survey findings, fieldwork dates, respondent populations and limitations.

What respondents said.

Ipsos Khayabus, the last major wave before the election. Figures describe voter intention during fieldwork, not counted votes.

Fieldwork
12 Sep to 13 Oct 2026
Released
30 Oct 2026
Sample
3,600 adults, 2,533 registered voters
A source discrepancy we keep visible

The earlier June to July wave used a different eligibility filter from Wave 2. Ipsos’s own charts retrospectively show some Wave 1 figures that differ from its September press release, notably MK in eThekwini (66% versus 55%). ElectionsX keeps the original September release at 55%, flags the discrepancy and does not treat the two waves as directly comparable.

Download the source-labelled poll dataset CSV ↓

Primary sources

01Ipsos, Wave 2, 30 October 2026↗02Ipsos, Wave 1, 4 September 2026↗03IEC, official API information↗04South African Government, election proclamation↗
IPSOS KHAYABUS / WAVE 02

Johannesburg

PUBLISHED
30 OCT 2026
i

Maximum reported metro sampling margin: ±5.89 pp. Amber whiskers show that maximum margin around each figure. These are polling responses, not counted votes or an election forecast. “Don’t know” is excluded from the visual bars but retained in the downloadable dataset.

DA holds a three-point lead over the ANC in the October Ipsos snapshot. The gap is smaller than the reported metro sampling margin.

View original source ↗

Is the lead bigger than the margin?

For the four metros with published breakdowns. The margin shown is Ipsos’s maximum for a single estimate. It is not a significance test for the gap between two parties, so treat this as context, not a verdict.

MetroLeaderSecondGap (pp)Max margin (±pp)Reading
JohannesburgDA 30%ANC 27%35.89Gap smaller than the margin
TshwaneDA 34%ANC 31%37.8Gap smaller than the margin
Cape TownDA 51%ANC 21%305.95Gap larger than the margin
eThekwiniMK 47%DA 21%266.42Gap larger than the margin

Response is not result

Survey responses reflect intentions during fieldwork. Actual voting includes turnout differences, late shifts and sampling uncertainty.

Boundaries matter

2021 and 2026 wards can be shaped differently. We will not assert a like-for-like local swing without a documented crosswalk.

Traceability first

Every released result needs the IEC source, retrieval timestamp, status and a separate publication review before it appears on ElectionsX.